Ten Hag's game model is making Rashford, Bruno and Onana worse
Three seasons of data on shots, final-third touches, box entries and launches show United's best players being moved away from what they do best.
A key aspect of our poor perfomances in the last 14 months is how ineffective some of our best players have been. Erik Ten Hag is very good at identifying individual traits and utilizing them; his lucklustre game model, however, is very poor at combining that into a coherent whole.
An element of compromise and flexibility exists in every setup, but generally speaking, you want your best players to have the highest chance of success.
That’s how to make your whole larger than the sum of all parts. And our best players are clearly not getting the best conditions to succeed. Nowhere is this more apparent than with Marcus Rashford, Bruno Fernandes and Andre Onana.
Marcus Rashford
In 3 seasons under ETH, Rashford has consistently been having fewer and fewer shots:
2022 / 2023 - 3.38 shots per 90
2023 / 2024 - 2.28 shots per 90
2024 / 1025 - 1.13 shots per 90
A dramatic 66% drop ⚠️
Is it because he’s gotten more insecure and thus reluctant to shoot? Maybe, but it’s primarily about where Rashford plays and what his tactical function is. Consider the percentage of his touches in the final 3rd:
2022 / 2023 - 58%
2023 / 2024 - 56%
2024 / 2025 - 44%
As you can see above, it’s even worse for his touches inside the pentalty box. It went down from 5.72 per 90 in ETH’s 1st season to 3.02 this season - almost a 50% drop ⚠️
And Marcus has been receiving fewer progressive passes, too: 7.66 in 2022/2023 down to 6.60 now. His defensive & build up duties went up considerably. Rashford now has 30% more touches in own our 3rd, compared to ETH’s 1st season.
Tackles & interceptions per 90 have gone up, as well:
2022 / 2023 - 0.84
2023 / 2024 - 0.91
2024 / 2025 - 1.32
A 57% jump ⚠️
In short, it’s clear ETH initially used him as an attacking outlet for our transitions, but has now switched to a more traditional winger role & duties.
The system no longer prioritizes getting Rashford into the box from wide positions. Rather, he’s often too deep and too wide.
Since Rashford is not elite at things such as small spaces playmaking, but is absolutely elite at entering the box & shooting from wide positions, it becomes obvious why this setup is not getting the most out of him.
Next up, our main man Bruno.
Bruno Fernandes
In 3 years under ETH, Bruno has consistently been creating fewer and fewer expected goals from assists:
2022 / 2023 - 0.45 per 90 mins
2023 / 2024 - 0.34 per 90 mins
2024 / 2025 - 0.19 per 90 mins
A 58% drop in xAG ⚠️
His numbers are also down for passes into pentaly box, from 2.42 in ETH’s 1st season to 1.59 this season.
And key passes are down, too, from 3.23 to 0.95 per 90 mins this season.
Is it because Bruno has less creative or less secure? No - it primarily has to do with where he plays.
Consider the percentage of his touches in the final 3rd:
2022 / 2023 - 44.5%
2023 / 2024 - 43.7%
2024 / 2025 - 41.9%
Under Ole it used to be ~50%.
(Credit @pkwestel )
And the trend is even more clear from Bruno’s touches in the penalty box per 90 mins:
2022 / 2023 - 4.04
2023 / 2024 - 3.03
2024 / 2025 - 2.53
That’s a 36.7% drop from 1st season ⚠️
And he’s been receiving fewer progressive passes as well.
Bruno is not an good carrier, so it’s important to optimize where and when he does it. Carries into penalty box per 90 mins:
2022 / 2023 - 0.76
2023 / 2024 - 0.66
2024 / 2025 - 0.48
Similar trend for carries into final 3rd.
This deeper positioning also means Bruno’s defensive duties went up. He’s now tackling and intercepting more than ever before:
2022 / 2023 - 2.53
2023 / 2024 - 2.75
2024 / 2025 - 3.33
A 31% increase in defensive load.
In short, it’s clear ETH has removed Bruno from his “shadow striker” role, where he used to be super-productive in goals & assists.
He’s now playing as a more traditional attacking 8, much more involved in playmaking & defending than before.
Dropping him deeper was done to accommodate Scott, Mount & Zirkzee and to help with quick progression through his long switches.
But Bruno’s instincts are to grab the game by the throat and get a GA contribution.
More removed from action = more wasteful & frustrated Bruno.
Andre Onana
Our goalkeeper, known for playmaking & passing skills, has been launching most of his goal kicks long:
2022 / 2023 (Inter) - 30.9%
2023 / 2024 - 58%
2024 / 2025 - 63.2%
An incredible 104.5% increase in launches since his Inter days ⚠️
What is really interesting is that these long passes resulted in *fewer* chances leading to shots.
Like the rest of our back line, Onana has been going direct way too soon, before opposition blocks have been manipulated.
A 50% drop last season ⚠️
In addition to this, we’re clearly reluctant to use riskier deep baiting with Onana involved during build up.
Thus, the percentage of his touches inside our box has been going down:
Though a less radical example of misuse than Rashford and Bruno, it seems obvious we’re not utilizing Onana’s skills as well as they were utilized at Inter.
And the dramatic increase in launches indicates it’s about tactical intent, not his personal downfall of some kind. The weird thing here is that Onana has previously played under ETH. He was brought in to raise our technical ceiling in build up. He now plays behind an Ajax-dominated defense. And yet we are using him to launch it long.
What this adds up to
These 3 players are key for our building, creating & scoring - and they’re not being used to the best of their abilities. Through different tweaks & decisions, ETH has made them less efficient & productive. And they are far from only examples of suboptimal use.
Guardiola once said his job is to create tactical conditions & patterns that allow his players to execute well. Using Pep’s adage as a metric, we’re clearly failing to do so - and the result has been bottom-half form.
Have our key players been perfect? No. But they are not bottom-half players. Is our squad perfect? No. But it’s not a bottom-half squad.
(Credit: @alraven3)
Think about this before you call the players lazy, unstable and unworthy. Think about this before you believe the rage-baiting pundits.
Think about this before you launch into simplistic angry rants against them. Context matters. Context always matters.